Sri Lanka’s Road to Bankruptcy was Political, Not Economics.

The Imminent reason for the protest is inflation, but the core is Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism.

Sri Lanka was once known as the most propitious land of reconciliation between majority and minority groups in South Asia. But the recent history tells us a different story. The Island’s civil war which started in 1983 and ended in 2009, left nearly 100,000 dead and millions displaced from their homes. The war began with an attack on the army base in Jaffna, the capital of the Northern Province by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) also known as Tamil Tigers. The war was incited by ethnic conflicts between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority, which includes Christians, Hindus, and Muslims. It was the longest-running conflict and was largely ignored by the international community.

Sri Lanka is an island nation off the southern coast of India. Its population is mainly composed of Sinhalese while 18% of Tamils are as well. Tamils are situated on the North and East sides whereas Sinhalese are on the South and West.  

 Last week, a terrifying saga of Sri Lanka took a significant turn, when the angry Mob stormed the presidential offices and occupied both the president and prime minister’s residences. Social and print media is full of pictures and videos of protesters swimming in the presidential pool, resting on his bed, and using his gym and other facilities after overcoming the beating, barricades, and tear gas. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who still had half the term left, fled from the scene before the arrival of the protesters. A few hours later, the speaker of Parliament announced that the president will resign and step down. By this time, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s private house was set on fire by some protesters.

Wickremesinghe was made prime minister in May 2022 when protesters entered Temple Trees and forced then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa- brother of the president and himself a former two-time president – to flee and resign. It was after Mahinda Rajapaksa and his supporters attacked rebels, who set fire to numerous homes especially those owned by pro-Rajapaksa. When Wickremesinghe was former Prime Minister (this is his sixth term, but never able to complete a single term) he hampered efforts to prosecute Rajapaksas for their crimes. Therefore his appointment was considered as blunting effort to slow down the protest. Henceforth protesters want his dismissal as well.

Although the direct cause for the protest was the catastrophic economic policies of Rajapaksas. But what put the Rajapaksa family in power. It was Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism that brought this family into power. It was nationalism that replaces the meritocracy-based government with nationalism, which over time led to kakistocracy, the rule of the country’s worst citizens. As one of the country’s newspapers once lamented “drug dealers, fraudsters, murderers, rapists, smugglers, and cow thieves” ruled politics and bankrupted a country with ample potential.

The anti-government protests spread until June 2021 by the farmers and trade unions when the government imposed a ban on the import of chemical fertilizers, insecticides, and herbicides that significantly threaten the crop yield. By this time, the country was facing a balance of payment crisis and this ban could save up to $400 million in subsidies. Sinhalese Buddhist farmers overwhelmingly voted for the Rajapaksas, therefore they supported him initially. Fear was another factor. Because in the past who-so-ever spoke against them, got killed or murdered. However this time, the farmers’ protest took a root and spread in the middle class as well. In March, women supporting the opposition held a protest outside the president’s private residence. The following month, the protesters gather outside the president’s secretariat and named their movement “Aragalaya” (Struggle). Subsequent protests were arranged throughout the island. It was the violence against the protesters outside the Temple Tree that led to the prime minister resigning from his position on May 9, 2022.

The direct cause of Sri Lanka’s current crisis is the lack of foreign exchange and protests have been fueled by poverty and ruins. The 2019 Easter bombing and COVID-19 put a negative impact on Tourism. COVID-19 also impacts remittances as well. Wrong policies of tax collection also reduce the government income. The Island is currently $51 billion in debt with $7 billion due to pay this year only.

The economic crisis means people have to wait for days to get basic necessities such as cooking gas, gasoline, sugar, milk powder, medicines, etc. (16 people died waiting in the fuel line this year). According to UNICEF, 5.7 million people required human assistance, including around 2.3 million children. Food Inflation in June 2022 exceed 80% as the government printed trillions of rupees.  80% of citizens were forced to eat less or cheap food than last month.

After the fuel announcement, the organizers began social media to encourage participation in Saturday’s protest. The government imposes an overnight curfew and spreads rumors of a terrorist attack but nothing stops the people to gather and protest. The government approval is at 3% which is a clear sign of people disliking the regime and wanting it to change.

The basic root of the current crises lies with ethnocracy. The Sinhalese, who now make up 75% of the total population is the majority whereas the Tamils are around 18% and Muslims are around 10%. Sri Lanka’s flag provides a compelling display of myths related to a powerful ethnic and religious story unpinned by Buddhism. The lion, who represents the majority community, has a courageous striped sword that represents the minority. The animal Flag represents the basic fact, that Sinhalese Buddhists have long exceeded the ranks of Sri Lanka.

Sri Lankan nationalism made Sinhala the only official language of Prime Minister S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike in 1956, thereby avoiding the hiring and publicity of Tamils ​​in particular. Tamils ​​have been overrated for government services for a variety of reasons. However, within 15 years of Sinhala becoming the official language, the table changed. For example, in 1956, Tamils ​​accounted for 30% and 40% of the bureaucracy and the military, respectively. In 1970, that number was equivalent to 5 percent and 1 percent. The relevant policy ended the flow of English in school as it was considered detrimental to the socio-economic upward liquidity of the Sinhalese. This policy permanently lost the English advantage that Sri Lankans enjoyed over Asian countries. Administrative services were also eradicated at the same time, allowing the Cabinet Minister to government ministries that were previously managed by competent and professional cabinet secretaries. The latter was calm, but the government wanted an ethnic-centered enforcer. The state was unable to expand facilities primarily to accommodate local Sinhalese students but demanded that Tamils ​​be superior to Sinhalese in order to gain access to the scientific field. I couldn't escape the university. Today, universities in Sri Lanka are known for their politicization, anomalies, and nationalist activities, rather than for providing capacity-based education.

As pay-for-performance and professionalism were eroded, many qualified people moved abroad. The Tamils ​​had no choice, but the Sinhalese, who value honesty and ability, also fled. This brain drain in the adoption of ethnocentrism has led to lower standards across all sectors of the government. But for Sinhalese Buddhists, it was "Ape Anduwa" (our government).  Tamil youth responded to ethnic persecution by waging a separatist war that lasted nearly 30 years. Since the end of the conflict in 2009, the Rajapaksa-led government has worked with radical Buddhist monks to incite Islamophobia. Being an anti-minority has strengthened patriotism. As a result, Rajapaxus was able to win the election for 20 years by combining Sinhalese Buddhist credentials with cavalry racism. Their role in defeating the separatists of Tamil Elam and the terrorist liberation tigers was only to strengthen their confidence. After the war, Mahinda Rajapaksa campaigned specifically for a Chinese-funded white elephant project. In doing so, the government relied on a debt restructuring strategy to repay interest on loans using foreign currency obtained from tourism and remittances. When more money was needed, it borrowed more.  Sri Lanka owes only about 10 percent of its external debt to China. The question here is not the amount to pay to China, but the "well-hidden" nature of the loan and how much they supported the thief politics.

Sri Lanka is currently desperately seeking help from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, but these institutions and other creditors are demanding transparency in China's debt before agreeing to a bailout and debt restructuring. prize. Indeed, Sri Lanka is a poster child when it comes to debt trap diplomacy related to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Thief politicians try to maintain power for fear of being held accountable. Gotabaya Rajapaksa abandons American citizenship to run for president and loses his power, as he and his family can finally be prosecuted for their ferocious past. Parliament may appoint its chair as interim president after both the president and the prime minister have officially resigned. Currently, until the next presidential election in 2024, someone in the panel will vote on July 20 to serve as president. There is so much disgust among almost everyone in Congress that the legislature can be pressured to dissolve itself. General elections that do not need to take place until 2025 can be called early. With major shortages expected in the coming weeks and months, the end of Rajapaksa's reign will make little economic difference in the short term. India is leading the way in helping Sri Lanka and has donated up to $ 4 billion to date. China is also interfering with currency swaps but is reluctant to restructure Sri Lanka's debt so that other states financed by China are not encouraged to demand similar treatment. Japan, a major donor, and creditor oppose the fear that corruption will misplace aid. Corruption is also a major problem in many other countries, and progress this weekend will continue to keep Sri Lankan friends cautious. Rapid restoration of political stability is the first step in securing further lending, subsidies, and debt restructuring.

Aragalaya movement proved that nationalist sentiment cannot overcome hunger and deficiency. Rajapaksas is one of the latest dictators to discover this. Meanwhile, the protest gathered the priests and citizens of all faiths. The Go Home Gota campaign has sparked a debate about building the future for everyone on the island. Perhaps the general suffering of Sri Lankans could be a countermeasure against the island's nationalism. But given the island's sad past, only fools will bet on the consequences.